VTB: the mortgage market will grow by a quarter in 2026

      December 1, 2025 11:45 Economics

      According to VTB's preliminary estimates, mortgage originations in Russia could grow by roughly a quarter in 2026, reaching about 5.3 trillion rubles. The segment will become more balanced: the ratio of state-supported and market programs will reach parity. This forecast was presented ahead of the 16th VTB Investment Forum "RUSSIA CALLS!" by Senior Vice President and Head of the Retail Business Products Department Alexey Okhorzin.

      The mortgage market in Russia is gradually recovering following the cut in the key rate. Bank experts expect high borrower activity in the real estate market through the end of the year, with the traditional peak in December.

      VTB expects mortgage sales in the market in the second half of 2025 to amount to about 2.7 trillion rubles (an increase of more than a third compared with the second half of 2024), and to reach 4.2 trillion rubles for the full year (a 13% year-on-year decline due to the slump in the first half).

      Growth potential is being restrained by high rates on market loans. The main volume of sales falls on state programs: VTB estimates that by the end of 2025 three out of four deals in Russia will be under them. Another factor remains the continuation of the "savings season": despite the reduction in the key rate, Russians can still place funds in deposits at higher interest and receive significant passive income.

      "In 2026 a 'thaw' should begin in the mortgage market, resulting in record sales for recent years, exceeding 5 trillion rubles. Importantly, after the 'turbulence' it will become balanced again: there will be one market-rate loan for every one subsidized loan, not three as now. At the same time, the refinancing many expect is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market: the pool of loans issued at peak rates is actually small. For example, at VTB one in five mortgage loans with a rate above 22% has already been repaid," Alexey Okhorzin said.

      After the final parameters of the "family mortgage" and the new requirements for confirming borrowers' incomes are determined, VTB will further refine its forecast for 2026.

      Earlier it was reported that residents of Nizhny Novgorod need 3.5 years to save for a mortgage down payment.

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