The retail lending market will grow by a third in 2026.

The retail lending market will grow by a third in 2026.

      01 December 2025 12:36 Economy

      According to preliminary estimates by VTB, Russia's retail lending market has gone through a restructuring phase and is returning to a growth trajectory. In 2026, loan issuance could amount to around 12.7* trillion rubles, which would exceed the planned result for 2025 by 32%. This forecast was voiced ahead of VTB's 16th Investment Forum "RUSSIA CALLS!" by Senior Vice President and Head of the Bank's Retail Products Department Alexey Okhorzin.

      In 2025, according to VTB's estimate, loans to individuals in Russia will total less than 10 trillion rubles — a quarter lower than in 2024. More than 60% of these will be mortgages and auto loans: 4.2 trillion and 1.8 trillion rubles respectively. Cash loans will account for about 3.6 trillion rubles. The retail loan portfolio in the market is expected to increase by 4% by year-end, approaching 40.9 trillion rubles. The main driver of its growth will be auto loans, whose portfolio will grow by 18%.

      In 2026, VTB experts forecast positive dynamics in lending across most retail segments: roughly a quarter for mortgages and 55% for cash loans. Auto loan issuances will show results comparable to the current year. The growth rate of the overall retail portfolio in 2026 is expected to be around 6%.

      "Retail lending has gone through a 'healing' phase: in the second half of 2025 we expect overall market sales to increase by 11% compared to the second half of 2024. Next year's results will depend on macro factors: the pace of cuts to the key rate, updated parameters of the 'family' mortgage, the situation with the recycling fee and planned changes to the rules for assessing borrowers' incomes. However, the trend toward recovery in the retail lending market is unambiguous," Alexey Okhorzin said.

      *VTB forecast based on data from the Bank of Russia and Frank RG, excluding POS lending.

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The retail lending market will grow by a third in 2026.