VTB forecasts growth in the retail lending market in the second half of the year.

      04 September 2025 13:21

      [151]

      Economy

      According to VTB estimates, in the second half of the year the volume of loans issued to individuals in Russia will amount to about 6 trillion rubles, which is 9% higher than the figures for the same period last year. The retail lending market, having reached its low in the first half of the year, has stabilized and begun to recover. This was stated at the Eastern Economic Forum 2025 by VTB’s Deputy President and Chairman of the Management Board Alexander Pakhomov.

      For the full year 2025, VTB forecasts the retail lending market volume at 9.5 trillion rubles, which will be 26% below the 2024 result. About 60% of disbursements will be secured loans: mortgages will account for 4.04 trillion rubles, auto lending 1.7 trillion, and cash loans about 3.8 trillion.

      VTB expects the volume of the retail loan portfolio in the market to increase by 3% year‑on‑year, exceeding 40.6 trillion rubles. The largest contribution to the positive dynamics will come from auto lending (growth of 16%) and credit cards (growth of 10%).

      “Positive dynamics in lending to individuals have been observed in recent months, which indicates a stable trend toward market stabilization. The reduction of the key rate has created a more predictable environment, allowing Russians to plan large purchases with greater confidence. The second half of the year could be a turning point for the market, showing growth compared with last year’s figures. However, a full renaissance of retail lending is still ahead; bank rates are still more suited to savings than to lending,” emphasized Alexander Pakhomov.

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