VTB named the reasons that will prevent the ruble from sharply weakening by the end of the year.

      June 3, 2026 11:17 Economy The first deputy chairman of VTB, Dmitry Pyanov, at the SPIEF-2026 named the factors that, according to the bank's expectations, will prevent the exchange rate from a significant weakening. In a conversation with RBC, he stated that by the end of the year, the dollar will remain at around 80 rubles. Among the key reasons preventing weakening, the top manager highlighted the maintenance of high oil prices, as well as expectations that a possible reduction in the cut-off price for the budget rule (its parameters may be revised in 2027) will not be radical. Earlier in its strategy for 2026, VTB had projected a weaker exchange rate of 85-88 rubles per dollar, but this forecast has now been revised. Pyanov noted that forecasting the exchange rate is complicated by the short history of the floating exchange rate in Russia, the influence of unpredictable events, and the inertia of expert opinion. Commenting on the thesis of the first deputy chairman of Sovcombank, Sergey Khotimskiy, about the "lack of will of the state" in the fight against the strengthening of the ruble, Pyanov disagreed with such an assessment. "Do we see the inaction of the state? My personal opinion is that this inaction is indeed an action that accelerates the reduction of the key rate. Because the rate will affect more sectors than the ruble," he stated. Other analysts have also started to incorporate a stronger ruble into their forecasts more frequently than they expected at the beginning of 2026. NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" has channels on Telegram and MAX. Subscribe to stay updated on major events, exclusive materials, and operational information. Copyright © 1999-2025 NIA "Nizhny Novgorod". When reprinting, a hyperlink to NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" is mandatory. This resource may contain materials 18+