Pyanov warned about the risks of a "black swan": why the new pandemic is more dangerous than economic shocks.

      June 15, 2026 14:40 Economy The reduction of global geopolitical tension and the maintenance of high prices in the energy market remain the main predictable drivers of a positive scenario for Russia. This statement was made by Dmitry Pyanov, the first deputy chairman of VTB, in an interview with RIA Novosti, appealing to Nassim Taleb's theory. The top manager identified these factors as key "white swans" - expected events that form the basis for the stable development of the financial system and the budget.

      Discussing the influx of export revenue and exchange rate dynamics, the banker called high oil prices an unconditional benefit for the Russian economy. He acknowledged that, in a global context, expensive raw materials traditionally stimulate the transition to green energy and electric vehicles, reducing long-term demand. However, in the current period, maintaining high prices benefits both exporters and the filling of the federal budget. "The truth is, there is a nuance - we also do not know how long this will last. For now, it is a good thing," Pyanov clarified, noting the uncertainty of the time horizon for this trend.

      In contrast to positive expectations, the first deputy chairman of VTB outlined the contours of a potential disaster - the very "black swan" that could collapse established macroeconomic models. He named a new pandemic as the main unpredictable threat.

      In his opinion, the state and business have learned to maneuver effectively in conditions of tight monetary policies, budget sequestration, and adaptation to structural reforms; however, the biological threat is an exception. "We are good at building models, reshaping the budget rule, cutting expenses, building roads, adapting to economic realities, but diseases are a completely different area where adaptation may not be as swift as the spread of a virus," the financier summarized, pointing to the critical vulnerability to the speed of non-economic shocks.

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