Pyanov warned about the risks of a "black swan": why a new pandemic is more dangerous than economic shocks.

      June 15, 2026 14:40 Economy The reduction of global geopolitical tension and the maintenance of high quotes in the energy market remain the main predictable drivers of a positive scenario for Russia. This statement, appealing to Nassim Taleb's theory, was made by Dmitry Pyanov, the first deputy chairman of VTB, in an interview with RIA Novosti. The top manager identified these factors as key "white swans" - expected events that form the basis for the stable development of the financial system and the budget. Discussing the influx of export revenue and exchange rate dynamics, the banker called high oil prices an unconditional blessing for the Russian economy. He acknowledged that in the global context, expensive raw materials traditionally stimulate the transition to green energy and electric vehicles, reducing long-term demand. However, in the current period, maintaining high prices benefits both exporters and the filling of the federal budget. "However, there is a nuance - we also do not know how long this will last. For now, it is a good thing," Pyanov clarified, noting the uncertainty of the time horizon for this trend. In contrast to positive expectations, the first deputy chairman of VTB outlined the contours of a potential disaster - the very "black swan" that could collapse the established macroeconomic models. He named a new pandemic as the main unpredictable threat. In his opinion, the state and business have learned to maneuver effectively under conditions of tight monetary policies, budget sequestration, and adaptation to structural reforms, but the biological threat is an exception. "We are good at building models, reshaping the budget rule, cutting expenses, building roads, adapting to economic realities, but diseases are a completely different area where adaptation may not be as swift as the spread of the virus," the financier summarized, pointing to the critical vulnerability to the speed of non-economic shocks. NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" has channels on Telegram and MAX. Subscribe to stay updated on major events, exclusive materials, and operational information. Copyright © 1999—2025 NIA "Nizhny Novgorod". When reprinting, a hyperlink to NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" is mandatory. This resource may contain materials 18+