The Sun is preparing a "black swan": what is this phenomenon?

      02 December 2025 20:00 Society

      A large complex of three sunspots has formed on the southeastern limb of the solar disk, which could be a harbinger of powerful solar flares, the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences reported, 360.ru says.

      On the morning of December 2 the total area of the spots reached 2,200 square units, which is significantly above average. Sunspot group No. 4294 became the second largest in the past 10 years. These spots form a single structure, which increases the likelihood of their interaction.

      For comparison, in October–November 2003 sunspot group No. 486, with an area of 2,600 square units, caused a series of the largest flares of the current century.

      "The basic physics of solar flares is based on very simple principles. Flares are simply a way for the Sun's atmosphere to get rid of excess energy that accumulates precisely in large active centers. Why this ordinary mechanism fails in this case remains unclear. Either, for some reason, the region is not generating energy, which at such sizes seems unlikely, or this energy is currently being actively accumulated," the Laboratory's experts commented.

      At IKI RAN they said the situation on the Sun is characterized as a "black swan," meaning a rare and unpredictable event. Scientists note that the scenario in which a series of flares reaches the X10–X20 level (the most powerful flares) has an equal probability of occurring and cannot be forecast precisely. For now, all that remains is to observe developments.

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