Flu epidemic in Russia: who is at risk and how to protect yourself

      In autumn, Russia is expecting an outbreak of swine and Hong Kong flu. Virologist Pavel Volchkov told 360.ru who is most vulnerable to the infection and how to protect oneself.

      When will the flu epidemic start

      Flu inevitably arrives in Russia in the autumn. This is due to the fact that during this period, children who are just beginning to develop their immune systems return en masse to kindergartens, schools, and nurseries. As a result, there is a virus exchange, which increases the risk of epidemics.

      Volchkov noted that in Russia, vaccination of children against the flu starts quite late and is not always conducted systematically. This leads to a significant portion of the population, including children, lacking immunity to new strains of the virus. Under such conditions, the likelihood of an outbreak of infection increases.

      "It's very simple: let's say, you won't be able to objectively monitor a total immune response specifically to the Hong Kong or swine virus. Because practically no one systematically tests for antibodies to viral infections, particularly to the flu virus," the specialist explained.

      Scientists use mathematical models based on past data. These models allow predicting which viruses may cause an epidemic in the current season.

      What distinguishes swine and Hong Kong flu

      Swine and Hong Kong flu belong to influenza viruses A and B. They have similar characteristics but may differ in severity and speed of spread.

      The expert clarified that influenza viruses A and B have similar symptoms, but in children who have not previously been infected with these viruses, the infection may be more severe. From the moment of infection to the appearance of the first symptoms, about five to six days pass, and a vivid manifestation occurs on the sixth or seventh day.

      The peculiarity of the child's body is that the immune system does not immediately recognize the new virus. This leads to a delayed immune response and, consequently, to more severe tissue damage. The respiratory and vascular systems, as well as other organs related to blood supply, are primarily affected.

      "Children, if vaccination does not occur, are subjected to the strongest impact of a virus they have never encountered," warned the virologist.

      Why children are the main spreaders of the virus

      Children are the most effective spreaders of the flu. This is due to their physiological characteristics and lifestyle. The phase of virus spread in children lasts longer than in adults. If an adult becomes infected, symptoms of ARVI appear by the third day. However, in a child, these symptoms may only appear on the sixth or seventh day—but during all this time, they continue to spread the virus without experiencing obvious symptoms.

      Nursery, kindergarten, and school classes are particularly vulnerable. Under such conditions, the virus spreads quickly among children, who then infect their relatives and peers.

      Seasonal flu vaccination: effectiveness and problems

      Flu vaccination is conducted annually based on the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO), which predicts the current strains of the virus. Usually, forecasts are made in February-March, and vaccines with updated strains are ready by August-September. Over the past 10-15 years, WHO forecasts have been accurate, and vaccines effectively protect against the flu.

      Vaccination reduces the risk of illness and the severity of its course, but not all population groups receive protection. Adults and the elderly often get vaccinated, while children and adolescents frequently remain unvaccinated, leading to a significant layer of people without immunity to current strains. This contributes to annual flu epidemics, which can intensify under conditions of reduced virus spread, as was the case during the COVID-19 pandemic.

      It is important to regularly update vaccines and apply them widely to protect the population. Unused vaccines are subject to disposal, Volchkov reported.

      How to protect against the flu: virologist's advice

      The virologist recommends two main methods of protection against the flu: vaccination and quarantine. Complete isolation can be challenging, so vaccination becomes an important preventive tool. The vaccine does not guarantee complete protection but works more effectively when applied widely, especially among children.

      "You can lock yourself in some bubble, then you won't get infected. If you can't lock yourself in a bubble from September to December, then it still makes sense to get vaccinated. Again, you can analyze which vaccines you were vaccinated with last year; the composition lists which strains are in this year, compare, analyze, and take a slightly more proactive and informed position: it's not black and white, vaccines don't help me, and so on, but try to understand on a practical, everyday level how things work," advised the virologist.

      Mass vaccination is especially important for vulnerable groups, such as children, the elderly, and adults with chronic diseases. Maximum effect is achieved with broad population coverage.

      The virologist reassured that swelling of the mucous membranes, runny nose, sore throat, and slight fever after vaccination are reactions of the immune system, not signs of illness. "This means that you encountered the virus and your immune system is responding to it. That's how it works," the expert clarified. The NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" has channels on Telegram and MAX. Subscribe to stay updated on major events, exclusive materials, and timely information. Copyright © 1999—2025 NIA "Nizhny Novgorod". When reprinting, a hyperlink to NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" is mandatory. This resource may contain materials 18+.