VTB Strategist: Peace in the Persian Gulf will crash oil and weaken the ruble, but will raise palladium.

      June 16, 2026 16:10 Economy The Strait of Hormuz, closed since March, is preparing to reopen. VTB Investment Strategist My Investments Stanislav Kleshchev assessed the implications of this event for global and Russian markets. The result is mixed trends: some assets are expected to fall, while others will rise.

      Oil and the Ruble under Pressure

      The main blow will fall on the oil market. According to the expert's estimates, nearly 20 million tons of already shipped oil and petroleum products have accumulated on tankers in the Persian Gulf. A one-time influx of such volume, along with the recovery of production in the region, will crash prices. Additionally, the decline in hydrocarbon prices will cool global inflation, allowing central banks to ease policies and support risk assets.

      For Russia, this will result in a weakening of the ruble—especially against the backdrop of the expected cessation of currency sales by the Bank of Russia in July. At the same time, a weaker national currency can support the shares of exporting companies, which will partially offset the negative impact of low raw material prices.

      Palladium - the Main Favorite

      Among precious metals, experts highlight palladium. Unlike gold, which has behaved like a risk asset in recent quarters and moves in sync with stock indices, palladium retains growth potential. The key reason is the changing structure of the automotive market: the share of pure electric vehicles has stopped growing, and buyers are increasingly choosing hybrids. This restores demand for palladium amid shrinking supply. According to the strategist, gold, platinum, and silver are near equilibrium values, while palladium's balance has shifted into a pronounced deficit.

      What’s the Bottom Line

      Russian exporters are facing a challenging period: the oil and gas sector, fertilizer producers, and aluminum manufacturers will be under pressure due to falling global prices. Copper, nickel, and precious metal producers may benefit. The main investment idea is palladium, which, amid shortages and recovering demand, is capable of outperforming other precious metals. NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" has channels on Telegram and MAX. Subscribe to stay updated on major events, exclusive materials, and timely information. Copyright © 1999—2025 NIA "Nizhny Novgorod". When republishing, a hyperlink to NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" is mandatory. This resource may contain materials 18+