VTB: a slight cut in the key rate will somewhat "revive" retail lending

      July 25, 2025, 17:09

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      The Central Bank of Russia continued to ease monetary policy by reducing the key rate by another 2 percentage points. According to VTB, this decision creates prerequisites for a certain revival in retail lending, including mortgages. At the same time, deposit rates will continue to decline in the market, remaining sufficiently attractive for profit fixation until the end of the year.

      Savings Market

      

      Against the background of the key rate reduction, banks have begun gradually lowering yields on deposits and savings accounts. In the first half of July, the maximum rate in major banks fell below 18%. The decline in deposit rates is happening faster than the reduction of the key rate, and the trend of decreasing returns on savings products will continue until the end of the year.

      

      Players are reallocating towards short-term attraction. Specifically, there is a decrease in rates on six-month deposits alongside an increase in three-month deposits. VTB, in turn, offers clients flexible conditions by introducing two additional deposit terms — 2 and 4 months.

      

      Despite the decline in rates, deposits and savings accounts remain popular savings tools among the population. In the second half of the year, the savings market will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected. By the end of 2025, VTB estimates it will reach 67 trillion rubles, of which 63.5 trillion will be ruble savings.

      

      Lending Market

      

      Considering the regulator’s decision, VTB has raised its mortgage issuance forecast to 4.04 trillion rubles (previously 3.8 trillion rubles). The cash loan segment is estimated to reach 3.5 trillion rubles by year's end (up from 3.2 trillion in the previous forecast). The impact on the auto loan market will be modest. Most players, assessing the regulator’s signals, have already factored in the current decline into their pricing policies; moreover, market dynamics are largely determined by car prices and borrowers’ debt burdens. Therefore, VTB currently maintains its auto loan issuance forecast for 2025 at 1.3 trillion rubles.

      

      Nevertheless, it is premature to speak of fundamental changes in the market at this stage. Government support programs, which form the backbone of issuance until the end of the year, will continue to play a leading role.

      

      VTB itself is now analyzing the situation in the retail product market. The bank has already decided to cut rates on cash loans by 2 percentage points. Further decisions will be made later, after assessing regulator rhetoric and market developments.

      

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