CMAKP expert: to launch investments, the key rate needs to be lowered to 7-8.5%

      June 19, 2026 15:11 Economy To overcome structural constraints and achieve sustainable economic growth, the key interest rate should be reduced to 7-8.5%. This opinion was expressed by Dmitry Belousov, Deputy General Director of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMACF), at the VTB investment forum "RUSSIA CALLS! Krasnoyarsk." According to him, the current monetary policy creates incentives for "sitting on cash" rather than for investments. The Central Bank lowered the key interest rate to 14.25% at the meeting on June 19. Dmitry Belousov identified the main problem not so much as the high cost of loans, but rather the alternative of deposits. "The problem is that we are not competing with investments by holding cash. We have created a situation where it is easier and safer to keep money in accounts, to hold money in OFZs, than to engage in investment projects, the profitability of which is unclear and what will happen with costs. Let's sit on cash. The Central Bank has created such a situation of 'let's sit on cash'," Belousov explained. According to him, to overcome structural constraints, the economy needs a GDP growth of about 3% per year. "Such opportunities exist, considering the mass of not very efficiently used labor. Therefore, investments of about 4.5% of GDP are needed," he noted. At the same time, the current interest rate level does not allow achieving the necessary proportions. "Various estimates show that 'how much is needed' starts from 8.5 to 7 - when the rate is already low enough to fit into reasonable investment cycles," the expert emphasized. In his opinion, the key question is not achieving a specific interest rate value (12% or 13%), but whether the authorities can ensure a high growth rate in the next five years using monetary and budgetary tools. In conclusion, Dmitry Belousov warned against excessive enthusiasm for planned methods of managing the economy. "The question is not to develop it [a piece of planned economy], but to give it flexibility," he noted, recalling the experience of the USSR. According to him, the planned sector must adapt to new challenges, rather than repeat the mistakes of the past. NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" has channels on Telegram and MAX. Subscribe to stay updated on major events, exclusive materials, and timely information. Copyright © 1999-2025 NIA "Nizhny Novgorod". When reprinting, a hyperlink to NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" is mandatory. This resource may contain materials 18+