VTB: a revival of demand for corporate lending is possible at a rate of around 12%
Photo: provided by VTB
The corporate debt market in Russia remains stable, and significant growth in demand for borrowed financing can be expected as the key rate decreases to levels that ensure a positive economy for investment projects. This was stated by Dmitry Sredin, head of the client relations department for market sectors at VTB, at the SPIEF - 2026. According to him, the total volume of corporate debt has practically not changed since the beginning of the year and amounts to about 84.5 trillion rubles. At the same time, the stable dynamics are primarily related to the significant volume of repayments, a similar situation was observed last year. He emphasized that to assess the prospects for growth in corporate lending, it is important to consider two key threshold levels of interest rates. "The first benchmark is the key rate of about 12%. This is the point at which the cost of borrowed capital becomes comparable to the market profitability of invested capital. In such conditions, projects begin to create added value for shareholders, rather than primarily working to service debt. It is from this level that noticeable revitalization of investment demand for lending can be expected," Sredin said. According to him, a more pronounced increase in investment activity is possible with further rate reductions. "With a rate below 10%, businesses gain an additional margin of financial stability to launch long-term development projects. In the range of 8-9%, the cost of money ceases to be the main limitation for corporate borrowers. Companies gain the opportunity to plan modernization of production, expansion of capacities, and launch new sites, relying on a stable financial model," he noted. Speaking about the financial position of large companies, Sredin emphasized that the resilience in the corporate sector remains, but is distributed extremely unevenly. "There are industries that entered the current cycle with a comfortable balance, predictable cash flow, and the ability to partially offset rising costs through prices. These are individual export-oriented companies, high-tech production, pharmaceuticals, as well as some service sectors operating in the domestic market," he said. At the same time, according to Sredin, VTB does not use an industry approach with strict lending restrictions. "We always analyze the position of each borrower in detail, the state of the industry, and the macroeconomic situation, including global factors. We do not have industries that automatically fall into any 'red lists.' For the bank, the key factors are the quality of the business, the financial stability of the company, and its development prospects," Sredin emphasized.
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VTB: a revival of demand for corporate lending is possible at a rate of around 12%
Photo: provided by VTB The corporate debt market in Russia remains stable, and significant growth in demand for borrowed financing can be expected as the key rate decreases to levels by 06.06.2026. NIA Nizhny Novgorod. Nizhny Novgorod region. Nizhny Novgorod.
