VTB forecasts growth in the corporate bond market against the backdrop of easing monetary policy.

      On April 29, 2026, at 15:17, in the Economy section, at the VTB Investment Forum "RUSSIA CALLS! Nizhny Novgorod," Vitaly Sergeichuk, Deputy President - Chairman of the Management Board of VTB, announced the formation of a sustainable trend towards an increase in primary offerings in the corporate bond market.

      "We expect an increase in primary offerings in the bond market - and the easing of monetary policy plays a catalytic role here. As the key rate decreases, the yield curve shifts downward, the cost of borrowing for issuers falls, and the 'window' for new placements expands," noted Vitaly Sergeichuk.

      According to him, the key drivers of growth in the debt capital market are the tightening of capital and risk-weight requirements for banks, as well as a structural liquidity deficit. Under these conditions, part of long-term lending loses its economic attractiveness, which enhances borrowers' interest in public debt instruments.

      "Against this backdrop, public debt is becoming a more rational instrument for large borrowers. Already in 2025, the bond market was growing noticeably faster than bank lending, and according to the Bank of Russia data at the beginning of April, the volume of public corporate debt increased by about 22% year-on-year, reaching approximately 35 trillion rubles, setting a historical maximum. In 2026, this shift from loans to bonds will only intensify," he emphasized.

      According to VTB's estimates, companies that previously postponed entering the market have already begun preparations for placements in 2026. At the same time, increased competition for liquidity will encourage issuers to offer investors more attractive yields.

      "We expect further growth in the volume of placements. For banks, including us, this means an increasing role for organizers and significant growth potential in capital markets. According to preliminary forecasts, by the end of 2026, the volume of the public corporate debt market could reach about 40 trillion rubles," added Vitaly Sergeichuk.

      At the same time, in his opinion, by the end of 2026 - beginning of 2027, a shift in balance in favor of bank financing may occur.

      "According to the Bank of Russia's forecast, the key rate may decrease to 12% by this period. At this level, the interest rate on loans drops to about 16%, which is comparable to the target return on invested capital for most large companies. This is the 'turning point' when projects with normal industrial returns begin to create value again after servicing debt, and investment activity expands," concluded Vitaly Sergeichuk.

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