Event monitoring expert report from January 9 to January 16, 2026 by the Autonomous Non-Profit Organization "Minin Center"

      Experts from the "Minin Center" analyze the events of the past week that influence the socio-political situation in the world, Russia, and the Nizhny Novgorod region, where long-term trends are manifested. The topics of the week are "First - a new security architecture in Europe and the world, then - settlement in Ukraine," "Nizhny Novgorod region among the regions attractive for relocation from other federal subjects," "Consequences of the abnormal snowfall."

      The federal topic is "First - a new security architecture in Europe and the world, then - settlement in Ukraine."

      Chairman of the ANO "Minin Center" Alexey Orekhov:

      "In light of the events over the past couple of weeks: strikes on civilian objects, on the residence of the President of the Russian Federation, the demonstrative seizure of a tanker under the Russian flag, and a week later the statement by the British Foreign Secretary about the readiness to board ships of the Russian fleet and coordinate their interception with European allies, show that the USA and company are again trying to learn the limits of what is permissible in practice, and apparently, they are growing convinced that there are no such limits. Previously, there was a fear of supplying Ukraine with anything heavier than helmets, but then it escalated - with the 'Nord Stream,' with the 'grain corridor,' with strikes on components of our 'nuclear triad' and missile strikes deep into Russian territory, assassination attempts and murders of public figures and military leaders in St. Petersburg and Moscow. Moreover, the enemy is becoming bolder: against the backdrop of the attack on Venezuela and the arrest of Maduro, direct threats have been made against President Vladimir Putin. During a conversation with leaders of oil and gas companies, Trump, when asked if he would like to kidnap the President of Russia, replied that it was not that it was impossible, but he thinks it won't be necessary. And the British Defense Minister John Healy, during a visit to Kyiv on January 11, directly stated that he would like to kidnap Vladimir Putin.

      Our symbolic responses, including the second strike of the "Nutcracker," were demonstratively ignored by the West. The behavior of Western elites shows that this does not impress them and does not change their behavior. That is, NATO's war with Russia through Ukraine is proceeding in a comfortable manner for the alliance. The West is not planning to abandon its intention to deploy troops on Ukrainian territory in case of a ceasefire. The West will continue to pressure and surround us with red flags. It seems that we will only be taken into account when NATO countries begin to bear direct costs from the war with Russia in Ukraine.

      And against this backdrop, yet another round of negotiations and agreements on resolving the conflict in Ukraine has predictably reached a deadlock.

      Earlier, Russia was presented with the so-called "Plan-20," which essentially amounts to freezing the conflict and deploying troops from the Western coalition in Ukraine. It was transmitted through the American embassy in Paris, which indicates the tacit consent of the Trump administration to the European version of the "peace plan." And most importantly: even the remnants of the "Anchorage spirit" have evaporated from the European-American "Plan-20." This document represents a proposal for a camouflaged capitulation of Russia with a refusal from all declared goals of the special military operation.

      According to Bloomberg, Whitkoff and Kushner were supposed to visit Moscow to push Russia to common Western ceasefire conditions, but it is obvious that this is unacceptable for Moscow.

      On January 15, Vladimir Putin, during the presentation of credentials to foreign ambassadors, sent a clear signal about the need to return to the initiatives for building a new, reliable, and fair architecture of European and global security, which Russia proposed, to consolidate the conditions under which a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine can be achieved.

      For now, it should be guided by the fact that "Russia will continue to consistently pursue the goals it has set for itself" until the masters of Ukraine abandon their desire to impose an unfavorable ceasefire on us."

      The regional topic is "Nizhny Novgorod region among the regions attractive for relocation from other federal subjects."

      Expert of the "Minin Center," Professor of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Doctor of Philosophy Andrey Dakhin:

      "In January 2026, Sberbank published the results of its research on migration flows between the regions of Russia, noting the emergence of the Nizhny Novgorod region among the regions attractive for relocation from other federal subjects.

      As noted in the report, relocation is usually not carried out on the principle of 'from anywhere to anywhere,' but on the principle of 'from one's own' macroregion: thus, in Siberia, the migration flow is concentrated in Novosibirsk, in the Urals - Yekaterinburg, in the Northwest - St. Petersburg, etc. The Nizhny Novgorod region and Nizhny Novgorod, as presented by the authors of the study, attract the migration flow from the large Volga region (although it shares this function with Kazan, which is also noted in the research). The activation of internal migration flows towards Nizhny Novgorod, although not of an avalanche-like nature, is nevertheless an important and promising trend.

      The fact is that according to the assessment of specialists from another reputable organization, the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INEP RAS), one of the fundamental factors of economic growth in new conditions is the population size of the region, and among the many factors influencing the positive dynamics of population size, one of the key ones is migration, including internal migration inflow. The strength of the migration attraction of our region did not arise out of nowhere. It is backed by the perceptions of Russians about the 'city of dreams,' the components of which were studied by the Romir holding in 2025.

      These are well-maintained public spaces, opportunities for leisure on weekends, walkable access to stores, green spaces, developed public transport infrastructure, and more. That is, everything that has been actively developing in Nizhny Novgorod in recent years. Physically, the share of newcomers from other regions is still not very high; according to Rosstat, in 2025 it was 11% (the same in Tatarstan), and at the moment we lag behind Samara (19%) and Ulyanovsk (18%).

      But at the same time, Nizhny Novgorod has a 'anchor' advantage in another aspect: the share of buyers of Nizhny Novgorod real estate from other regions is 7% (in Tatarstan - 8%), which signals the seriousness of the intentions of Russians from other regions to settle in Nizhny Novgorod and the Nizhny Novgorod region. The strategy for the comprehensive development of the region and the agglomeration of Nizhny Novgorod is thus beginning to bear fruit. Competition with other regions for resources, primarily for human resources, is a job that is yielding results. Since 2026 has just begun, I would like to wish the leadership of the region and Nizhny Novgorod to build on success in this direction."

      The municipal topic is "Consequences of the abnormal snowfall."

      Expert of the "Minin Center," co-chairman of the regional headquarters of the People's Front in the Nizhny Novgorod region Boris Karaganov:

      "Throughout the week, heavy snow fell almost without interruption, with only its intensity changing. More than 150,000 cubic meters of snow were removed from the city streets in just a few days. The abnormal snowfalls became a real test for the utility workers. Experts from the People's Front constantly monitored the situation with snow removal in Nizhny Novgorod and other settlements in the Nizhny Novgorod region, received complaints from citizens, and organized assistance for them with the involvement of representatives of the State Housing Inspection of the Nizhny Novgorod region.

      The snowfalls have ended, and some conclusions can be drawn regarding the organization of snow removal. According to the experts of the People's Front, the utility workers of Nizhny Novgorod generally coped successfully with the snowstorm. Thanks to the constant control over snow removal by the city head Yuri Shalabaev and the large-scale purchases of snow removal equipment made earlier, the main roads of the city were cleared of snow around the clock, and it was possible to move around the city by car, which was positively assessed by the city residents.

      At the same time, residents of Nizhny Novgorod complained about snowdrifts near their homes. Due to uncleaned yards and roads, mountains of garbage accumulated at container sites during the snowfalls, and city residents were outraged by the improper organization of snow removal in the adjacent territories. In a positive light, one can note the management company LLC "Our House" in the Avtozavodsky district. It was evident that the janitors of this management company were working, engaged in clearing the adjacent territories of snow.

      However, residents of the Nizhny Novgorod district, for example, asked where their janitors were, why they were not clearing their yards of snow. Residents of house No. 152A on Maxim Gorky Street were outraged by the absence of janitors in the adjacent territory during the heavy snowfalls. Citizens were forced to trample paths for themselves on the sidewalks and wait for the janitors to finally come and clear the sidewalks of snow down to the asphalt, as required by regulatory documents.

      During the heavy snowfalls, another problem emerged in the