VTB called the scenario of raising the key rate unlikely.

      On July 4, 2026, at 09:16, Dmitry Pyanov, the First Deputy President and Chairman of the Management Board of VTB, stated at the FinCongress in St. Petersburg that the scenario of raising the key rate in Russia is unlikely. According to his assessment, in the worst-case scenario, it may only happen that at a greater number of Central Bank meetings, the rate will remain unchanged, as the regulator seeks to support weakly positive GDP growth and avoid a recession. Pyanov also noted that the rise in fuel prices does not block the possibility of further "homeopathic" steps regarding the rate: the fuel component is not part of the stable elements of inflation, which, according to VTB's assessment, will decrease, while gasoline prices will affect unstable components and inflation expectations. In response to a question about the threat of recession, the top manager of VTB noted that the expected GDP growth of 0.5% by the end of the year cannot be considered a recession, as the classic definition of recession implies negative dynamics for two consecutive quarters, while 0.5% is weak but still positive growth. NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" has channels on Telegram and MAX. Subscribe to stay updated on major events, exclusive materials, and timely information. Copyright © 1999—2025 NIA "Nizhny Novgorod". When reprinting, a hyperlink to NIA "Nizhny Novgorod" is mandatory. This resource may contain materials 18+.